Haitong Securities (600837): High elasticity + low estimated credit business risk margin improved significantly

16 May by admin

Haitong Securities (600837): High elasticity + low estimated credit business risk margin improved significantly

Haitong Securities (600837): High elasticity + low estimated credit business risk margin improved significantly

Key points of investment: In the first quarter of 19, Haitong Securities realized a net profit of 3.8 billion yuan, YOY + 118%, exceeding expectations.

The self-operated business has improved significantly. If the market environment continues to improve, it is expected to contribute to the flexibility of performance.

  The planned increase plan is to raise 200 million, which is a major supplement of capital.

Upgrade to “Buy”.

  The first-quarter performance exceeded expectations, and the performance of self-operated businesses and subsidiaries was outstanding. In 19Q1, the company achieved net profit of 3.8 billion yuan, an increase of 118% year-on-year.

Period-end average return on average net assets3.

14%, earlier 18Q1 + 1.

67 units.

19Q1 Credit impairment loss 2.

640,000 yuan, a year-on-year increase of +46.

71%, mainly due to the increase in impairment losses on credit assets of subsidiaries.

Other business income was 2.3 billion, an increase of 78% year-on-year, mainly due to the increase in sales revenue of subsidiaries.

  Net fee and commission income improved, and the amount of securities traded by agents rose sharply in 19Q1. Net fee and commission income rose to 2 billion, YOY + 4.

28%.

Brokerage income was 100,000 yuan, an increase of 6 year-on-year.

73%.

At the end of the period, the agency traded securities amounting to 968 trillion, which was + 35% over the end of the previous year.

Q1 stock turnover is YOY + 23%. The decline in performance elasticity is expected to be related to changes in commission rate.

The investment banking business income was 60,000 yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2%.

Asset management business revenue was 4 trillion, an increase of 9% year-on-year, and is expected to be offset by AUM (channels).

  Self-employed performance improved, contributing to performance flexibility 19Q1 The company’s self-operated business (investment income + income from changes in fair value) was 4.9 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 269%.

Among them, the investment income was 2.5 billion, an increase of 85% year-on-year, mainly due to the increase in investment income from disposal of financial instruments.

Gains from changes in fair value were 24 trillion, mainly due to the increase in gains from changes in fair value of financial instruments.

  The net interest income increased, and the fund raised rebounded in 19Q1. The company’s net interest income was 9 million, a year-on-year increase of 25%, mainly because the contraction of the capital intermediary business started in 18Q2.

In 1Q1, the capital raised was 549 trillion, which was + 12% compared with the end of the previous year.

Financial assets purchased under resale agreements amounted to US $ 71.3 billion, which is -14% lower than the end of the previous year. It is expected that the report will cause the size of stock pledges to continue to shrink, but the pressure on credit impairment losses caused by market growth has effectively eased.

  The US $ 20 billion 天津夜网 fixed increase plan continued to be promoted, and major shareholders actively subscribed to the company’s proposed US $ 20 billion fixed increase plan. Among them, the major shareholders represented by Shanghai Guosheng Group actively subscribed and the planned subscription amount did not exceed US $ 14.8 billion.

Major shareholders’ positive subscriptions demonstrate confidence. If the plan is successfully implemented, it will further consolidate capital strength and comprehensive competitiveness.

  Investment suggestion: high elasticity of performance + low estimate + 200 ppm fixed increase plan.

The first quarter results have improved significantly. If the self-employment environment continues to improve, it is expected to contribute to flexibility.

Based on the company ‘s first-quarter results exceeding expectations, 杭州桑拿网 we raised the company’s 2019E-2020E results from 71/84 million to 99/117 trillion.

The current total corresponding 19E is limited to 1.

25 times PB.

Based on our upward revision of the company’s profit forecast, the company’s target price is adjusted from 11.

90 yuan increased by 17.

66 yuan, corresponding to 19E is 1.

6x PB, upgrade rating from “overweight” to “buy”.

  Risk reminder: the policy falls below expectations, the credit business risks, and the progress of the fixed increase plan is less than expected