Oupai Home (603833): The Rising Leader of Custom Home Industry
Investment suggestions: As the leader of the domestic custom home furnishing industry, Europa Home Furnishes a solid and diversified channel model to seize emerging traffic sources such as engineering, assembly, and the Internet. In terms of products, it has comprehensively promoted the extension of the large home furnishing product line, following its successAfter expanding the category of wardrobes from cabinets, efforts were made on categories such as wooden doors, bathrooms, and soft furnishings to help the company grow in the medium and long term. In terms of brands, Europa and Opalli operated under double brands, covering a wider consumer group, and sub-brands grew rapidly.
We are optimistic about the company’s future growth prospects and the trend of strong Hengqiang, and outperform the industry rating again.
Reasons to customize the home industry: traffic reconstruction, channel conversion.
Since 2017, the overall passenger flow of the custom home furnishing industry is facing restructuring. The main characteristics are: the bid for farewell to the rapid growth of new homes, and the proportion of hardcover homes in new homes has gradually increased; the old home refurbishment market has gradually risen.
According to Aowei Cloud Network, in 2020, it is estimated that among the 28.28 million sets of industry demand, new houses / old houses will account for 61% / 39% respectively. Of the new house demand, more than six will be hardcover delivery.
The differentiation of passenger flow in the industry has directly brought the transformation of the customer acquisition model of home furnishing companies from centralized to discrete. The channel model that originally focused on home furnishing KA stores has begun to reset. Multiple channel models are the core elements for long-term stable growth.
Omni-channel, multi-category, competitive barriers to the development of informatization: ① Channel side: Facing the current situation of decentralized industry demand, the company consolidated multiple channel layouts, and based on the deepening of traditional distribution channels, laid out 2B projects (revenue accountingThe ratio is over 15%), and new channels such as complete equipment (double growth), Internet (accelerated drainage), and other industries seize the industry’s traffic; ② product side: large household product line industry is more complete, mixed in volume, cabinets, wardrobes separate industries1, 2 people, wooden doors, bathrooms, home furnishings and other high-speed growth; the sub-brand 天津夜网 Aubrey focuses on cost-effectiveness, covering young people; ③Informatization: the company’s informatization has realized cabinets, and gradually opened up in front of the wardrobe, helping to reduce costs and human efficiencyEnhancement and subsequent promotion of multi-category informatization to enable the landing of a large home strategy.
The driving force of sustainable growth is multi-point blooming: in terms of channels, we expect the company’s traditional retail channels to maintain steady growth, and large-scale projects, assembly and other emerging channels to maintain high-speed growth; in terms of products, the cabinets remain above the leader, steady growth, and the wardrobe remains relatively stable.Early growth, new categories such as wooden doors and sanitary wares are growing at a high speed. In terms of brands, we expect that the main brand of Oupai will grow steadily, and the sub-brand Oubo Li will maintain rapid growth.
Earnings Forecasts and Estimates We maintain the company’s 2019/2020/20214.
The profit forecast of 14 yuan remains unchanged, corresponding to 26/21/19 times P / E; re-performing the industry rating, based on conversion switching, raise the target price by 7% to 145 yuan, corresponding to 19e / 20e / 21e 33/27/24Times P / E, there is 27% growth space.
The price of risky raw materials fluctuated sharply, and the real estate scale policy exceeded expectations.