Shanxi Fenjiu (600809)： Accelerated growth in revenue and profits; outstanding performance in markets outside the province
Shanxi Fenjiu (600809): Accelerated growth in revenue and profits; outstanding performance in markets outside the province
Incident Shanxi Fenjiu released the 2019 third quarter report.
In the first three quarters of 2019, the company achieved total operating income of 91.
27 ppm, an increase of 25 in ten years.
72%; net profit attributable to mother 16.
960,000 yuan, an increase of 33 in ten years.
36%, net of non-attributed net profit 16.
930,000 yuan, an increase of 33 in ten years.
Our Analysis and Judgment (1) In the third quarter, single-quarter revenue was 47%, attributable to the growth rate of 55% of the parent’s profit.
From the single quarter data, the company’s operating income for the first three quarters of 2019 was 40.
49 trillion, the annual growth rate was 25.
74%; net profit attributable to mothers is 8.
06 billion yuan, the previous growth rate was 23.
85%; net profit after deducting non-attribution is 8.
40,000 yuan, the annual growth rate was 23.
In the first three quarters of the company’s revenue, profits continued to increase month-on-month, and the momentum was good.
In the first three quarters of 2019, Fenjiu, series of liquors, and blended liquors achieved revenues of 79.
6.3 billion in the third quarter, single-season fen wine, series of wine, blended wine realized income23.
6.2 billion. (II) The advance account receipts in 2019 continued to increase month-on-month, and Q3 exceeded the new high. The advance account receipts of the company continued to increase month-on-month, and reached a record high again.
In 19Q3, the balance of the advance payment of the company was 18.
4.1 billion, an increase of 3 from Q2.
60 ppm, an increase of 133 in ten years.
94%, after a slight negative growth in the first quarter of 2017, on the basis of achieving rapid growth for ten consecutive quarters, the multi-year growth rate reached a new high.
Company Q3 received a sales receipt of 29.
59 million, net operating cash flow was 2.
05 ppm, operating cash flow net / net profit ratio from -252 in 19Q2.
84% rebounded to 37 in 19Q3.
53%, compared with 105 in the third quarter of last year.
(3) The sales expense ratio in the third quarter alone recovered to a new quarterly low since 2017. The company’s gross profit margin in the first three quarters of 2019 was 69.
19%, a decline of 0 per year.
At 25PCT, we believe that the company’s proactive product strategy adjustments caused the rapid growth of Bfen to produce a change in product gross profit structure.
The company’s sales expense ratio for the first three quarters of 2019 was 18.
18%, rising by 0 every year.
23PCT; administrative fee rate 5.
71%, an annual increase of 0.
37PCT, mainly due to the increase in employee compensation and maintenance costs.
Decreased plasma uronic acid helps increase net profit margin.
26PCT to 19.
In terms of single quarter, gross profit margin for the third quarter of 2019 was 63.
93%, down 4 each year.
94PCT; three expense ratios of 17.
05%, down 7.
32PCT, mainly from the sharp decline in the sales expense ratio, 19Q3 sales expense ratio decreased significantly.
50PCT to 10.
31%, a new quarterly low since 2017.
The growth rate of interest rates in 19Q3 also dropped significantly, exceeding the decline2.
09PCT to 29.
Two factors contributed to the increase in net interest rate in the third quarter of 2019 by one.
48PCT to 19.
(IV) The proportion of direct sales has increased significantly, and the market outside the province has grown rapidly. In 2019, the company has identified a base market (Shanxi), three major sectors (Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei, Yulu, Shaanxi and Mongolia), and three small market sectors (East China, Two lakes, southeast), a market pattern composed of 13 opportunistic markets outside the province, referred to as “13313” layout.
Through market classification and selection, according to market characteristics and strategies, intensive cultivation, the intra-provincial market ensures rapid increase and healthy development, and the markets outside the province focus on breakthroughs.
Since 2019, in order to further focus on the core brands, further promote the product strategy of “grasping the middle of the two belts”, carry out a gradual system management of the entire series of product sales in the national market, and focus on the control of blue and white and Bfen series products; meanwhile, strengthen channel construction and consumptionThe training is aimed at east, southeast, two lakes and three small plate markets, with key prefecture-level cities, key districts and counties as the main promotion body, and combined with the expansion of infrastructure construction as a strategy to create key urban agglomerations for Fenjiu marketing.
From the data in the three quarterly reports, we can see that the company’s focus strategy performance is very obvious, especially in the peak season of 19Q3.
Outside the province, it is very effective.In the first three quarters of 2019, sales revenue outside the province reached 45.
6.8 billion, a previous growth rate of 68.
42%; in the third and third quarters, the market outside the province realized revenue14.
02 trillion, the annual growth rate reached 139.
1-3Q outside the province accounted for 50.
51%, an increase of 11 per year.
03PCT; 19Q3 company’s market share outside the province is 51.
37%, an increase of 20 per year.
14PCT, the market share outside the province continued to increase 杭州夜网论坛 significantly.
In the first three quarters of 2019, the proportion of direct sales (including group purchases) increased significantly.
From the changes in the proportion of direct sales (including group purchases) disclosed by the company, the percentage of direct sales (including group purchases) in the first three quarters of 2018 was 3.
89%, in the first quarter to the third quarter are around 3-4%; in the first three quarters of 2019, direct sales accounted for 14%.
38%, an increase of 10 per year.
49PCT, and began to increase significantly in the second quarter, the proportion of direct sales in the second and third quarters was 20 respectively.
45%, an increase of 17 per year.
84PCT is expected to be very obvious.
Investment proposals are expected to achieve a total operating income of 118 for the year 2019-2021.
310,000 yuan, an annual increase of 26.
97%, net profit attributable to mother 19.
470,000 yuan, an annual increase of 36.
39%, corresponding to 2 EPS in 2019-2021.
50 yuan, the current multiple of PE corresponding to 39, 31, 25 times, maintaining the “recommended” level.
Risks indicate food safety risks; the risk of weak downstream demand; the risk of developing offsite is less than expected.